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france and germany relations

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. Geopolitical issues seem to be much more important for French respondents than they are for their German counterparts. The repercussions of these crises can be found in ECFR’s latest survey. At the same time, France is clearly Germany’s closest ally in the EU. Europe’s ability to defend itself is clearly on the mind of Macron, who disrupted European harmony by harshly criticising NATO in an Economist interview. All this has made it easy for us to further develop this great tool. Their failure to recognise the importance of escalating great power rivalry for all EU internal policy areas is the biggest obstacle to a more geopolitical Europe. Thanks also go to Christoph Klavehn for visualising the data in a compelling and accessible fashion. This policy brief draws on the results of the third edition of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Coalition Explorer – a survey of policy experts and government officials across the EU27 – to analyse the Franco-German engine’s potential to cooperate and lead the EU on foreign policy. Yet, from a German perspective, the status quo is a thoroughly pleasant state of affairs. Currently, Europe is confronted with a number of major challenges all at once. Germany and France have different ambitions when it comes to European defence. The country, it seems, feels like it has done its part on European defence. The Commissioners for Franco-German Cooperation – in Berlin Minister of State for Europe Michael Roth, in Paris Minister of State for European Affairs Clément Beaune – are the Federal Government’s institutional bridge between Germany and France, with the Commissioner for Cultural Affairs under the Treaty on Franco-German Cooperation – currently Minister President Laschet – fulfilling the same role for the federal Länder. Rather, they can help the union achieve its objectives and increase its credibility as a global actor. Together, France and Germany have all that they need: the south and the east, the ambition and the pragmatism, and the coalition potential. Regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November, the rivalry between the US and China is likely to become more intense in the years to come. Given that Russia is the EU27’s leading foreign policy priority overall (in eighth place), it is clear that member states are still geopolitical navel-gazers. Member states in the region make up nine of the ten countries that rank France in last place on the question “which EU27 member states generally share many of your country’s longer-standing interests on EU policy?” (the other is Sweden). It analyses the results of the biannual survey ECFR conducts in the EU27. Given that summits in Brussels now focus predominantly on internal EU policy, France and Germany should lose no time in pushing other member states towards greater cohesion on foreign policy. There is a gulf between the strategic cultures of the two countries. Macron’s idea of a rapprochement with Russia, his comments about NATO’s alleged brain death, and his initial veto on EU accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania were not well received in Berlin. In the past, the German government has often emphasised the need to find a consensus with its European partners rather than force them into agreements. The American president’s recent announcement that the US would cut its troop presence in Germany by more than 25 per cent – purportedly because the country was spending too little on defence – is just the tip of the iceberg. After all, foreign policy challenges cannot wait until the EU has sorted out all its internal disputes, especially if only one or two member states block the wishes of all the others. But member states are still a long way from forging a unified China policy; even Paris and Berlin often plough their own furrows in this area. German respondents expressed little desire to cooperate outside the EU framework in any of the policy areas covered by the survey. The German government has little time for Macron’s confrontational political style. Berlin often claims to have an existential interest in preserving the European project, seeing Germany as the one country whose core task is to keep the club together. While Macron wanted to aggressively push through his ambitious ideas for reform, she wanted only to make cosmetic changes. While cooperation between France and Germany cannot shape EU policy by itself, the absence of a good working relationship between the two has a particularly negative impact on the EU’s ability to move forward. Europeans clearly see France under Macron as powerful: 93 per cent of the respondents consider the country to be one of the most influential countries on EU policy. Some member states, particularly those on NATO’s eastern flank, see the United States’ presence in Europe as life insurance – and are potentially much less ready to join team Europe when interests on either side of the Atlantic collide. Together, they have all they need: connections to the south and the east, as well as ambition and pragmatism. Germany shares four of its top five priorities – fiscal policy, migration, climate, markets, and digital issues – with those of the EU27 overall. Thus, neither approach is helpful for building European defence capabilities. She co-hosts Sicherheitshalber, a German-language podcast on security and defence. As such, Berlin’s unwillingness to change is understandable. A turbulent joint history, close friendship, and important trading partners: Germany and France have had close ties. However, the most remarkable insight one can draw from the results above concerns the Franco-German couple: 20 of 36 French respondents view Germany as one of their top five most disappointing countries. The first part of the paper discusses Germany’s and France’s respective roles in the EU – covering the extent to which other member states see them as leaders, as well as the state of the Franco-German working relationship. In fact, 17 European states do not have defence in their top ten priorities. If the European Union wants to be a player, not a plaything, on the international stage, it needs to step up on foreign policy. Among the 20 issues that ECFR asks policymakers and policy experts in all EU capitals to rank in order of priority, nine directly relate to foreign policy: common defence structures, a common foreign policy, and a common development policy, as well as common policies vis-à-vis Russia, China, the US, Africa, Libya, and Iran. In the coming years, European states might have to choose what is more important to them even more often: EU unity or Europe’s ability to act. Since January 2020 they have been supported by the Franco-German Cross-Border Cooperation Committee. Although France takes second place in this measure, it does so mainly due to the generally low numbers for other countries: 27 per cent of respondents consider France to be responsive, just ahead of the Netherlands at 24 per cent.

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